[420 Girl]

Here in the East Bay's growing hotbed of marijuana-related commerce -- an uptown stretch that some call "Oaksterdam" -- the buzz just got thicker.

They're talking about it at Oaksterdam University, where seminars fill up months in advance on marijuana law, cultivation, bud-tending and other pot topics; and at a shop across Broadway that sells the latest hash-making machines and German vaporizers, while a dozen people wait for patient ID cards in the back, some with babies on their laps.

In the backroom of Coffeeshop Blue Sky, a dispensary on 17th Street, mention of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's statement last week that "it's time for debate" about legalizing pot drew a wide smile from Air Force veteran Rosanne Rutherford, who sat waiting to plunk down $22 for some "Blue Dream" in a brown paper bag.

"It's been demonized for years, just because of politics," said Rutherford, 41. "It was a happy surprise. How things change."

Even the most ardent pot advocates say they're a bit dizzy over the governor's comments and the speed of an apparent shift in public opinion toward legalizing and taxing pot. A Field Poll in April found 56 percent of California voters now favor it. As recently as 2004, a similar poll found less than 40 percent did. Nationally, a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll found that 46 percent of Americans favor legalizing small amounts of pot for personal use, up from 22 percent in 1997.

And while some marijuana reform advocates expect a federal prohibition to remain firmly in the way of legalizing pot use for years, others say they aim to press the issue with a state ballot measure, possibly as early as next year.

In the meantime, state Assemblyman Tom Ammiano, D-San Francisco, introduced a bill this year to legalize personal possession and use of marijuana and clear the way for retail pot sales should the federal government change course. The state Board of Equalization estimates that Ammiano's bill could raise more than $1.3 billion a year for the state, though some scholars in marijuana policy call that a pipe dream.

Advocates and scholars see several factors converging, the largest being the economy and a desperate hunt for new revenue. A political shift with the Obama administration may play a role, and the fact voters are more apt to have smoked weed, along, perhaps, with a growing sense of futility in the war on marijuana and the cost in lives along the Mexican border.

"I've never seen a ... phone survey that showed more than half of adults favoring legalization. I've certainly never seen a governor putting forth the idea of debating the issue, much less an actual bill," said Robert MacCoun, a UC Berkeley public policy professor. "It's a comfort zone for politicians we didn't have 10 years ago."

Another possible factor: a public sense that Prop. 215, which legalized medicinal marijuana use in 1996, has caused few major problems, despite local battles over pot clubs, bad actors and high-profile dispensary raids.

"They see the sky hasn't fallen," said Richard Lee, president of Oaksterdam University. "You talk about the system being abused. Everybody's like, 'So?"

Not so fast, say anti-drug activists. Schwarzenegger's comments, in response to a reporter's question about the Field Poll, amounted to a populist nod, but no endorsement. He remains against legalization, he said. Schwarzenegger also said the experiences of countries such as his native Austria that have legalized pot and found troubling results should be studied, noted Calvina Fay executive director of the Drug Free America Foundation.

"I don't think he was saying it's time to legalize drugs," said Fay, who contends health care costs from addiction would far outweigh the tax benefits. "He was saying legalization or quasi-legalization hasn't worked."

Advocates say they hope for an ear from the Obama administration, which has signaled it has no plans to go after pot clubs in states with medicinal marijuana laws. But a campaign for legalization would be different, MacCoun said. "The Obama administration has no interest in fighting this battle, but if forced to, they will," he said.

One scholar who favors a change in marijuana policy cautioned that a full-scale commercial market would drive up abuse.

"The beer industry is in the business of making drunks, and they're pretty good at it. I would think the pot industry would be good at creating zonkers," said Mark Kleiman, a UCLA public policy professor and author of "Against Excess: Drug Policy for Results."

Some, like Lee, envision a local coffeehouse model like Amsterdam. Others imagine it more like wine country, spurring a vibrant tourist market. Dale Gieringer, director of California NORML, said a ballot measure now would surely fail. Still, he counts himself surprised and "enormously pleased" with the new polls and the prospect of a public debate.

"We've had a long debate on marijuana, but until now, it's always pussyfooted around the issue" of legality, he said. "The economy in general has forced a change in values."

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